Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The first fact is the one sitting on the injury report: Pierce has an IR designation from before week 3 of 2026, and he plays no game while it stands. He has not appeared since week 2 of 2026, with week 3, week 4 and week 5 of 2026 all missed. The two weeks he did play gave him 6.1 points a game and zero touchdowns on seven targets, which is a thin base to judge anything, but also nothing that argues for patience.
The deeper issue was there before the injury. Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman took 21% each of the 2025 targets, 42% between them, and among players in a crowded target room like that, points a game fell 0.9 the next season on average. Pierce's path was always the deep ball, an average depth of target of 19.0 yards that ranked WR11, and a red-zone share of 10.7% that ranked WR119. That is a feast-or-famine shape, and 2025 showed it: 12.2 points a game, a 29.2 in week 18 of 2025, a 0 in week 17.
We set our preseason number at 181 points for the season, with 12.1 points a game over 15 expected games, and he went WR34 on our board. But every week he sits on IR, that projection loses a week it cannot recover, and the crowded room shaves what he earns when he returns. Hold him only if your bench has room to spare. If your roster is tight, the spot is worth more spent on a receiver who can play.