Atlanta FalconsOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The touchdowns are carrying everything. Four scores on 51 carries and 3 catches through week 5 of 2026, and that is why he sits at 10.0 points a game against our preseason pace of 4.1. But look at the weeks around the 25.7 in week 4 of 2026: 3.1 in week 1, 1.6 in week 5. That is what a second running back looks like when the scores dry up, and last season he cleared the position's weekly median in just 3 of 17 games.
The role has not grown with the move from SF to ATL. He is listed second behind Bijan Robinson, the 17% red-zone share in his games ranks RB39 among backs with 20 or more carries and targets, and 4 targets in five weeks says the passing game still barely touches him. His target share fell from 6.0% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, and that shaved his scoring badly on the way down to 3.68 points a game last season.
There is some real talent left. 2.5 yards after contact a carry ranks RB9 among backs with 25 or more carries, and +0.1 rushing yards over expected through weeks 2 to 4 of 2026 says the legs still work. Our 57-point projection for 2026 was set before the touchdowns started, and he is running well past it.
Hold him for now, the scores are real until proven otherwise. Just do not start him over a clear every-week option until the carries grow past this.