Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The week 1 of 2026 line, 11.5 points, is the only week keeping this season from being a total zero, and it looks more like a stray than a start. Since then he has scored 0, 0, 3.3 and 1.8, on 9 targets and 5 catches for the whole year. That is not a role, that is leftovers.
The role is the real problem. Ben Johnson calls the plays and Colston Loveland, the first-listed tight end, took 17% of Chicago's targets in 2025 while Kmet was down at 9.7%, and Rome Odunze took another 24%. Kmet still played 70.4% of the snaps, but that share slid from 93% over weeks 1 to 4 of 2025 to 75% over weeks 15 to 18, so even the blocking role is thinning. With only 6 red-zone touches and 2 inside the ten last year, ranking TE76 in red-zone share of his own touches, blocking-heavy snaps do not turn into points. Last year he topped the position's weekly median in 8 of 16 games and never once cleared 15, and the year before he was worth 118.4 points. That slide, 7.4 points a game in 2024 down to 4.79 in 2025, is the shape of his last two seasons, and players in his spot have gained just 1.3 points a game year to year on average. Not nearly enough to close this gap, and our preseason number had him at 86 points for the whole season, which already looks generous.
He plays every week, we will give him that, and there is no injury designation. But availability with no targets is just warm bodies, and his bye in week 10 of 2026 is still ahead. We would cut him for a tight end who actually sees the ball.