Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The touchdowns are the whole debate. Four scores in five games, 37.7% of his team's touchdown points last season, and among receivers in that spot, scoring points fell about 2 a game the next year. At 33.7 years old in season 13, counting on another step forward in that department is the hard part of holding him. A crowded room behind Puka Nacua, where Nacua took 30% of the targets in 2025 and Adams 25%, has cost similar players another 0.9 a game, so the two knocks stack.
But the workload survives both knocks. The 25% target share profile has gained about 8.1 points a game the next season on average, and the 70.3% snap share profile gained 8. This season he is eating even more downfield, taking 37% of his team's air yards through week 5 of 2026, WR16 among the 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets, and he is gaining 1.4 yards after the catch over expectation, WR7 among the 58 receivers with 10 or more tracked catches. Nineteen points a game against the 15.1 preseason pace we set for him says the age question has not arrived yet. Separation is thin at 2.2 yards, WR52 among the 57 receivers with 15 or more tracked targets, so any decline in accuracy from his quarterback would show up here first.
We set our number at 211 points for the season, and he has played every week so far, though the record says 14 of 17 in each of the last two years, so keep some room for a missed stretch. Start him every week until the targets or the separation crack, and enjoy the bye in week 11 of 2026 while you have it.