Arizona CardinalsOur read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
Ten points a game through five weeks, from the third overall pick, is not what we wrote down. Our preseason pace had him at 15.3, and the gap is not bad luck on the surface numbers. He is losing 0.3 yards a carry to expectation, RB27 among 36 backs with 25 or more tracked carries over weeks 1, 3, 4 and 5 of 2026, and Arizona gives him just 17% of the carries and targets inside the ten. That is the role complaint: the goal-line work you draft third overall for has not shown up.
The case for patience is real too. LaFleur and Hackett are both new this year, and the 24% red-zone share, RB33 among 65 qualified backs, says the staff does want him around the scoring area. Two touchdowns in five games is low conversion, not absent opportunity. He has played every week, the 2.2 in week 5 of 2026 is the ugliest line, and 21.9 in week 3 shows the ceiling is in there somewhere. Our number still reads 184 for the season, with most outcomes between 133 and 236.
What keeps us from panic is the contact work: 1.8 yards after contact a carry, RB22 among 53 running backs with 25 or more carries, so the line is not collapsing on him. And the receiving side is live, 11 catches on 14 targets in five weeks, which keeps a rookie involved even when the runs stall. The worry is the efficiency: poor yards over expected and thin inside-the-ten work drag the whole range down if it holds. Hold him for now, but if week 6 of 2026 and week 7 look like week 5, you shop for a back who gets the goal-line carries.