Baltimore RavensOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Four games in, the play itself is fine. He is completing passes well above expectation, +7.1 percentage points over 96 tracked attempts, first among 35 quarterbacks, and he is getting the ball out in 3.11 seconds even while blitzed on 32% of his charted dropbacks. The 19.8 points a game land almost exactly on the 20.0 preseason pace we set for him. This is not a production problem.
It is an availability problem, and it has recent history. He sat out week 5 of 2026 and has been listed Out since before week 6. Last year he played 13 of 17, missing weeks 5 and 6, 8 and 17 of 2025, and his points fell from 25.2 a game in 2024 to 16.4 in 2025. The 2024 season shows what a full year is worth from him: 17 of 17 games, 428.4 points, first among 69 quarterbacks. Even in the down 2025, he beat the position's weekly median in 8 of his 13 played weeks. We put 300 points on him for the season, with a range running 252 to 349 where most outcomes land and injuries pulling the low tail down to 208, and we expected 15 games. Quarterbacks drafted around pick 55 have pooled in at about 281.9 points, and that pool includes the seasons injuries took away.
One more wrinkle: Jesse Minter and play caller Declan Doyle are both new this year, so we are still learning what this staff wants from him before we lean fully on the early returns. We would hold him and start him the week he is cleared, because QB2 play at the position is still in there when he suits up.