Michael Wilson

The volume has arrived and the touchdowns have not. Five games into 2026 he is sitting at 12.8 points a game, right where our preseason pace of 12.1 said he would be, yet one touchdown in five weeks is what keeps him from breaking past the WR35 spot we put him at. What has actually improved is where the ball is going: 37% of Arizona's air yards in his games, WR15 among 64 receivers, and 15% of the team's red-zone carries and targets, WR11 among that same group. A year ago his red-zone share of his own touches was just 12.7%, WR94, so the end-zone diet is the part of his game that moved.

The reason we are not pushing him higher is what happens after the catch. He is losing 0.6 yards a catch against expectation on his 29 tracked catches, WR54 among 58, and his 2.7 yards of separation ranks WR30 among 57. That is a profile that needs the deep ball to land, and it shaves the ceiling on the weeks the shots do not connect. The room is also not his alone: McBride took 27% of Arizona's 2025 targets to his 20%, and players in his spot historically drop 0.9 points a game in that situation, plus another 0.8 with a 3.5-win team around him. And coming off a 13.0-point season, the jump is rarely repeated: players who averaged what he did last year have been docked 1.2 points a game the next season on average.

Our number is 181 for the season with his bye not until week 14 of 2026. Hold him. The target volume is doing its job, and the scoring should follow.