Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
Through week 6 of 2026 Harvey has 23 catches on 26 targets and zero drops, and that is what is keeping him ahead of the 9.3 points a game we set for him before the season. The weeks have swung from 19.3 points in week 4 of 2026 down to 0.7 in week 5, but the pass game is steady and the only one he sat out was week 2 of 2026.
The touchdown work is where it slipped. This season it is 3 of 27 team red-zone plays in his games, RB51 among 65, and inside the ten just 1 of 16. Last year 34.8% of his points came from scoring, and players in his spot lost 3.1 points a game the next season on average, net of two factors, with his 1.1x touchdown share worth another 0.7 of typical decline. That risk is already showing in the red-zone numbers, and 0 touchdowns through six weeks does not argue against it.
The case for keeping him is the target volume in a Payton offense, plus the 2025 base: RB20 among 159 qualifying backs at 12.2 points a game, RB8 in receiving yards, 17 of 17 games played. Our number had him at 139 for the season, and the pass work keeps that in reach if the scoring returns.
Hold him as a flex through the bye in week 10 of 2026. If the red-zone carries stay this thin past the bye, the ceiling is a PPR streamer, and that would be the moment to look elsewhere.