Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The zero in week 1 of 2026 was the outlier, not the trend. Since then he has caught at least four passes in three of four weeks, hit 23.8 in week 4 of 2026, and sits at 9.4 points a game, a touch under the 10.7 pace we set before the season. That is roughly on script for a guy we projected at 161 points and WR45, and he has not missed a week despite carrying a Q tag into week 6 of 2026.
The usage is what keeps him on rosters. He took 18.9% of the targets last season, and receivers in that spot historically add about 9 points a game the next season once we net out the noise. His 27% of New England's air yards this year and an average depth of 16.6, fifth among receivers with 15 or more targets, say the deep role travels with him. The catch is the room: Stefon Diggs at 21% and Hunter Henry at 18% last season crowded the plate, and comparable players have lost about 0.9 points a game in that setup.
The scoring role is real too. He ran 17 red-zone touches and 8 inside the ten last season, both top twelve among qualifying receivers, and this year he holds 14% of New England's red-zone carries and targets, WR15 among the 64 receivers with enough work to rank. The path to touchdowns runs through him even without carries.
So he is a WR4 who spikes on a deep touchdown and dinks you with weeks like the 2.6 in week 5 of 2026. With the bye in week 11 of 2026 coming, we would hold him and let the targets tell us by week 8 whether the week 4 spike repeats.