Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The injury list is the whole problem this week: he has been on IR since before week 5 of 2026, he plays no game while he is there, and our board ranks him below every available running back. A 24-year-old fourth-year back with Saquon Barkley in front of him does not have the profile to sit through that and still matter to you.
Even before the injury, the season was not working. Four games, 4.3 points a game, a 0.3 in week 1 of 2026 and a minus in week 3 of 2026, and he is losing 0.7 yards a carry against expectation over his 27 tracked carries, RB34 among the 36 running backs with 25 or more tracked carries. The 14% red-zone share he is running (5 of 35) is well off the 28.4% of his own touches he turned in last year, and the history on that profile has cost players in his spot 6.4 points a game on average the following season. Add the 10.5 expected wins angle, which docked similar backs 1.6 a game, and there is not much to hang on.
The one thing going for him is the 129 points over 16 games he put up in 2024, RB36 among 129, but that feels like a different back now. Drafters moved him up 22.5 picks before the season, from 159.4 to 136.9, and that looks worse by the week.
Our preseason number was 87 points for 2026, RB48 on our board, but that assumed 14 games and a healthy role. Instead he has missed week 5 of 2026 and now cannot be started at all. We would move on and spend the roster spot on a back who can take the field in week 6 of 2026.