New England PatriotsOur read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
Six weeks into 2026 the case we made has not shown up. He sat out week 1 of 2026, and in the four games since he has given you 6.6 points a game with one touchdown. Our preseason pace was 9.2 a game, so he is running well under even the modest bar we set.
The goal-line role is what broke. Last season he took 40 red-zone touches, RB20 among 148 qualifying running backs, and 24 inside the ten, RB13. This year through weeks 1 to 5 of 2026 he has 3 of 33 red-zone carries and targets in his games, RB54 among 65 backs with 20 or more touches of their own, and just 1 of 16 inside the ten. When this much of a back's value lives in touchdowns, the history is ugly: that profile has cost players in his spot 2.9 points a game on average the next year. His whole line sits inside that pattern.
There is one small thing to like. On 30 tracked carries in weeks 2 and 4 of 2026 he is +0.5 yards a carry over expected, RB11 among 36. He is running fine. The offense just is not feeding him where points come from, and Rhamondre Stevenson sits above him on the depth chart.
Our number was 120 for the season, RB34 on our board, against an ADP of 63.7. Hold him through the week 11 of 2026 bye only if you can carry a dormant spot. If the red-zone share has not climbed by midseason, move on.