Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The scoring role has evaporated. Through five games of 2026, Spears has zero touchdowns and none of Tennessee's 22 carries and targets inside the ten, and he is getting 5% of the team's red-zone carries and targets in his games, RB60 among the 65 backs with 20 or more carries and targets of their own. At 5.1 points a game, that is what a catch-only back produces, and it is why the weeks have been so spiky: 9 points in week 2 of 2026 and 9.8 in week 5 of 2026, but 0.5 in week 3 and 1.6 in week 4.
The pass-game job survived the new staff. He has 14 catches on 16 targets with no drops across weeks 1, 2, 4 and 5 of 2026, and last season the receiving work was as good as it gets for a back, RB12 in target share among 158 qualifying players. He is still listed second behind Tony Pollard, and with 17 carries on the season the run game has not come close to replacing what the goal line took away. Even in 2025 the finishing work was thin, 17 red-zone touches and 8 inside the ten, which is why the ceiling was always capped.
Availability has not been the issue, all five weeks played, though our 106-point projection was built on 14 games at a 7.6-point pace, and he is well short of that. With the week 9 of 2026 bye coming and a friendly weeks 15 to 17 stretch against IND, LV and PIT, hold him through the bye if the bench allows. If the scoring-range work has not shown up by week 8 of 2026, let him go for a back with a clearer path to the end zone.