Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Last season in New York he was quietly one of the steadiest receivers in fantasy, above the weekly median in 15 of 16 games and WR13 among 240 qualifying receivers at 13.6 points a game. The move to TEN does not change who he is: a volume catch receiver working underneath, with an average depth of target of 8.5 yards that ranked WR159 among 223 last year. We set our projection at 185 points for him, and he is listed second among TEN receivers behind Carnell Tate, with Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor having combined for 34% of the targets there in 2025.
The worry is the downfield slice. Our case leaned on a 28.0% air-yards share, but through weeks 1 to 5 of 2026 he sits at 18%, WR52 among 64 receivers, and he is scoring 10.3 points a game against the 12.3 preseason pace we set for him. The red-zone work was never there, 9.1% of his own touches last season, WR137 among 223, so when the air yards shrink there is nothing underneath to catch him. That profile has cost players in his spot.
The other side: 22 catches on 30 targets in five games, 2.7 yards of separation on tracked targets, and a target share case that lifted players like him 5.8 points a game on average year over year. He has not missed a game this season, and week 2 of 2026, 1.9 points, is the only week under 8.8 so far. Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll are both new, so give it a few more weeks before judging. We would hold him through his week 9 of 2026 bye, and the air-yards share is the first number to check when you do.