Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The depth chart says third among SEA running backs. The red zone says something else. Through weeks 1 to 5 of 2026, Wilson has taken 31% of his team's red-zone carries and targets in his games, RB20 among 65 running backs with 20 or more carries and targets of their own, and 41% of the carries and targets inside the ten, RB16 among that same group. That is goal-line work, and it is why a guy running behind Brady Russell and Jadarian Price on the list has scored three touchdowns and put up 9.4 points a game over six weeks.
The worry is that the volume lives entirely at the one-yard line. He is averaging minus 0.4 rushing yards over expected a carry, RB29 among the 36 running backs with 25 or more tracked carries this season, and 1.4 yards after contact a carry, RB45 among the 53 running backs with 25 or more carries over weeks 1 to 5 of 2026. When the touchdowns come he pays for your lineup, like week 4 of 2026's 27 points. When they do not, you get weeks of 0.3, 1.4 and 5.2. Eight targets through six weeks tells you there is no passing-game cushion here, and his bye lands in week 11 of 2026.
We had him for 46 points all season, 3.3 a game over the 14 we expected, and he is beating that. The call: hold him in deeper leagues where you need the touchdowns, and keep starting him while the inside-the-ten share holds. If the goal-line carries dry up, the weeks he scores under the median arrive fast.