Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
28.2 points a game through five weeks, and the two soft weeks are barely soft. A 17.46 in week 3 of 2026 and an 18.52 in week 4 of 2026 still clear the bar he cleared in 13 of 16 played weeks last season, when his worst was 6.9 in week 16 of 2025. We set him at 307 points for the full season, and the year is running ahead of that. Week 1 of 2026 was 35.66 and week 2 was 40.82, then the dip, then a 28.5 bounce in week 5. That is the shape of a quarterback who carries you every single week he dresses.
The rushing is why the arm never buries you. 43 carries and 239 yards on the ground, 15 total touchdowns, and defenses know it: he has been blitzed on 32% of his 164 charted dropbacks and pressured on 20% of his dropbacks this season. It has not mattered yet. His completion rate sits 1.6 points over expectation on 138 tracked attempts, QB19 among the 35 quarterbacks with enough attempts to track, which tells you he is handling the extra bodies without forcing anything.
The one thing worth watching is the new staff. Joe Brady takes over as head coach and Pete Carmichael Jr. is calling plays, and nobody on this roster has run their stuff in a game until this year. Five weeks in, it has cost him nothing. We had him QB1 on our board before the season and nothing has moved us off it. Start him every week through the week 7 bye and beyond, and if anyone in your league read the week 3 and week 4 of 2026 box scores and got nervous, that is your opening.