Our read
Written Sun 12:01 am Central, for week 6
No injury designation for Terry McLaurin on Sunday's report, so he plays the Monday 7:15 pm Central kickoff at San Francisco after missing week 4 of 2026. The published projection sits at 12.1 points in PPR scoring for him this week. He's run at 10.1 PPR points a game over 4 games this season. The 49ers give up 29.4 PPR points a game to receivers, 13th of 32 through week 5, and Washington carries a 22.3-point expected score. He's first among Commanders wideouts, so start him.
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The missed week 4 of 2026 sits next to a 2025 that already went wrong, ten games played and 11.4 points a game after 15.75 the year before. Our 198-point projection was never built on that. It assumed the 23.3% target share and 69.8% snap share would push a receiver in his spot up a couple of points a season, and that he was closer to the 267.8-point WR7 he was in 2024 than to last year's WR55 finish.
What has come back is thinner. Five weeks in, 26 targets and 14 catches, one touchdown, 10.1 a game with a 19.7 spike in week 3 of 2026 and a 3.4 in week 1. The air-yards share has climbed to 31% this year from 22.4% last season, so the downfield role is real, but he sits at WR38 among 64 in red-zone share and has scored once. Deebo Samuel Sr. took a 25% target share here in 2025 to McLaurin's 23%, and a room that crowded has trimmed about 0.9 a game from comparable receivers. Age 31 and a new play caller in David Blough do not fix that.
The availability history is the swing: he missed seven weeks in 2025 and played 17 in both 2023 and 2024, so our 14 expected games were reasonable, but you already burned the week 4 of 2026 absence. Hold him, and keep him out of your lineup until he puts another double-digit scoring week beside that 19.7 from week 3 of 2026. If he follows it with a second strong showing in week 6 of 2026 or after, he is a playable flex again at WR27 on our board.