Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Nobody saw this role coming. The Giants are sending him into the red zone on 21% of their carries and targets there in his games, second among 23 tight ends with at least 20 of their own, one spot behind Brock Bowers. He is also pulling 23% of their air yards, third at the position, one spot behind Trey McBride. For a guy who finished TE45 among 137 qualifying tight ends last season, that is a whole new job.
The worry is how he is getting it done. He is not separating: 2.6 yards from the nearest defender on 48 tracked targets, TE16 among 18 tight ends with 15 or more tracked targets, and -0.1 yards after the catch a catch, TE12 among 20 with 10 or more. When coverage tightens, those spikes could tighten too. And the week-to-week shape is bumpy: 3.3 in week 3 of 2026, 8.3 in week 2, bookended by 27.8 and 32.4. Last season he cleared 15 points in none of his 12 weeks.
The bounce-back case has history behind it: points a game for players in his spot rose 1.3 on average after a 5.6 season, and the team change to a fresh play caller in Matt Nagy gives it room. The 17.1 a game through week 5 of 2026 is running well ahead of the 9.8 a game our preseason pace assumed. Four touchdowns and 48 targets in five games say the looks are real, a year after he managed just 6 red-zone touches all of 2025. Our number was 147 for the season, TE8 on our board, well above the 135.9 drafters took him at before the season. Hold him through his bye in week 8 of 2026 and start him confidently.