Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The separation number is the only thing worth worrying about, and it is not enough to bench him. Over 56 tracked targets through week 5 of 2026 he is averaging 2.5 yards from the nearest defender at the catch or incompletion, TE17 among 18 tight ends with that many tracked targets. Contested volume is a real thing and it can shave points in weeks like his 10.1 in week 4 of 2026, but the role behind it is untouched.
The role: he is taking 23% of Arizona's air yards in his games, TE2 among the 23 tight ends with 20 or more carries and targets, one spot behind Brock Bowers, and 19% of the team's red-zone carries and targets, TE3 among that same group. New coach Mike LaFleur and new play caller Nathaniel Hackett have not cut him loose, he has not missed a week, and he is sitting at 18.2 points a game. He finished TE1 among 137 qualifying tight ends last season at 18.6 a game, so this is basically the same player with the same job.
Our preseason number was 215 points, a pace of 14.3 a game over the 15 games we expected for him, and he is beating it. There is no clean historical cost to put on the tight coverage, since it is his own number and not an average for players in his spot, but it is the reason the ceiling weeks are not all 30s. With a week 14 of 2026 bye still ahead and no injury designation, we would start him every week and not think twice.