Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The number that matters: 27.5 points a game through week 6 of 2026, with no missed weeks, running well clear of the 20.7 a game our preseason pace gave him. Our projection had him at 310 points for the full season, and most outcomes sit between 258 and 361, so he is tracking exactly where the top of that range lives. And the usage says it is real. His target share sits at 36%, half of Seattle's air yards run through him, and he has jumped to 22% of the team's red-zone carries and targets in weeks 1 to 5 of 2026, WR2 among 64 receivers. Last season the red zone was his weak spot, WR125 among 223 in red-zone share of his own touches, so that jump is the new ceiling in his profile. The growth has been building for two years: his target share went from 24.1% in 2024 to 35.8% in 2025, and his yards per target climbed from 8.4 to 11.2 over the same stretch.

The case for him holding this line rests on what usually follows a target load like his. Among receivers in his spot with a 36% target share, points a game climbed 10.1 on average the following year, and the 77.9% snap share group added 8 more. He is 24 and entering his fourth season, and he has played all 51 possible games across three years, so the availability worry is thin.

The real downside is how tight the coverage gets at the catch: 2.7 yards of separation, WR32 among 57 tracked receivers, and it costs him on the weeks the deep shots don't connect, like the 12.6 in week 4 of 2026. Our read says start him every week, ignore the matchup, and don't overthink the week 11 of 2026 bye.