Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
One carry through five weeks. That is the whole 2026 season for Ty Johnson so far, and it tells you what he is in this offense: a catch-only change of pace behind James Cook and Ray Davis. Ten targets, ten catches, 131 receiving yards across weeks 3, 4 and 5 of 2026 is real work, and it is the only path to his points. The 7.8 a game he is running now lives entirely on that, because he is not scoring, he is not running, and at 29 years old the legs that made his yards per touch 8.4 in 2024 gave way to 6.3 last season.
He sat out weeks 1 and 2 of 2026 before any of that, so the sample is three games old.
The deeper worry is what his profile did to backs in his spot. A 30.9% touchdown-points share has historically come with backs in his spot losing ground the next year, and a 27.7% red-zone touch share came with a similar fall, both after pooling in the busts and injuries. His 2025 was already a role in miniature: RB47 among 159 qualifying backs on 5.9 points a game, kept alive by RB26 receiving yards among that group and a top-ten red-zone share of his own touches. When the touchdowns regress, there is nothing underneath. That touchdown-heavy profile has cost players in his spot 13.7 points a game on average the following year.
We figured him for about 2.2 points a game before the season, and through five weeks he is under that even with the strong receiving stretch. Hold him only if you are stashing for a Cook absence, since the bye lands in week 7 of 2026 and the schedule turns after. Otherwise the waiver wire has better swings.