Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Missed the first two weeks of 2026, then came back and went over 20 points in each of his three games so far, 27.6 in week 3 of 2026, 20.6 in week 4 of 2026 and 23 in week 5 of 2026. That is 23.7 a game against the 14.3 pace we set before the season, and it says the early absence did not cost him his role. The usage backs it. He is TE1 among qualifying tight ends in red-zone share at 23% of his team's red-zone carries and targets, and TE1 in air yards share at 40%. We projected him at 214 points for the season, overall rank 19 and TE2 on our board, and nothing in the first month argues with it.
The worry is not the talent, it is the calendar. He played 12 of 17 in 2025 with four weeks gone to injury or a reserve list, and after week 16 of 2025 the roster carried him as RES with no body part named. We counted on 15 games before the season with a low end of 10, and weeks 1 and 2 of 2026 already went. A tight end at 23.7 a game is only worth the number of games he plays, so watch every report between now and his bye in week 13 of 2026.
One stat to keep an eye on: 2.4 yards of separation on tracked targets, last among 18 tight ends with 15 or more tracked targets. He is winning with volume and positioning anyway, but if defenders start sitting on those targets, the scoring tapers. Still, with 3 touchdowns and 34 targets in three games, we would hold him and start him every week he is active.