San Francisco 49ersOur read
Written Sun 12:01 am Central, for week 6
Kittle drew the softest tight end matchup on the Monday night slate in week 6 of 2026: Washington ranks 30th of 32 against the position, giving up 22.2 PPR points a game to tight ends. The published projection has him at 14.7 points. His form swings wide, from 26.2 PPR points in week 3 to 7.4 PPR points in week 5, but 4 touchdowns and a 29.8-point expected score for San Francisco keep him busy. No designation on Sunday's report, first among 49ers tight ends. Start him Monday.
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
He is 32.9 and entering his tenth season, and the whole case rests on whether 2025 was an injury blip or the start of the slide. The first five weeks argue for the blip. He has played every game, caught 21 of 28 targets, and scored 4 touchdowns, running at 14.4 points a game against the 10.0 pace we set for him before the season. The air yards back it up: he is drawing 20% of his team's air yards in his games, TE6 among tight ends with 20 or more carries and targets, and he sits TE2 in yards after the catch over expectation, one spot behind Travis Kelce.
The worry is what his body does over a full season. Last year he missed weeks 2 through 6 of 2025 and finished at 162 points over 11 games, and his yards per target fell from 11.8 in 2024 to 9.1. That is why our number sits at 140 for 2026, with 14 expected games, well under the 236.6 he gave drafters in 2024. There is also a soft spot in the profile: 2.9 yards of separation on tracked targets ranks him TE13 among 18 tight ends with enough targets, so he is winning after the catch more than before it.
The red-zone role is real, 13% of his team's red-zone carries and targets in his games, TE8 among 23, and Shanahan still calls the plays with Kittle first on the depth chart. Our projection had him TE12 at 84 overall, and he is giving you more than where he went before the season at 90. Keep starting him until he shows he cannot, and remember his 2026 bye lands right after week 7 of 2026 when you set your lineup.