Cleveland BrownsOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The week-by-week looks worse than the totals do. 4.1 in week 1 of 2026, 24.1 in week 3, then 1.4 in week 5, and yet he is at 10.3 points a game, a hair above the 9.9 pace we set for him before the season. That is the read: the ugly weeks are loud, the average is exactly where it should be for a guy we ranked TE6 overall.
What keeps him there is how open he is. On the 20 tracked targets over weeks 2 through 4 of 2026 he averaged 6.0 yards of separation, first among 18 tight ends with enough targets to qualify, and he is turning it into 17% of Cleveland's air yards in his games. He is getting the ball in real spots, not padding catches underneath.
The downside is scoring position. Last season his red-zone touch rate ranked TE85 among 126 qualifying tight ends, and this year he is at 11% of the team's red-zone carries and targets, TE12 among 23 tight ends with 20 or more of their own. Better, but the touchdowns, three already, came on thin volume, and weeks like that 1.4 in week 5 of 2026 are what a zero-touch day looks like for him. Drafters also slid him down 9 picks before the season, from 74.1 to 83.1, a small vote of doubt.
Hold him. The bye in week 11 of 2026 is still ahead, he has not missed a game, and the 149-point projection does not need him to repeat the 24-point spike.