Baltimore RavensOur read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
Eight touchdowns in five games is the whole engine here, and the usage behind them says it can keep coming. He owns 61% of Baltimore's carries and targets inside the ten, third among backs with 20 or more touches, one spot behind Bijan Robinson, and 56% of the red-zone work, one spot behind Kenneth Walker III. That is not a committee back scraping goal-line carries. That is a clear gatekeeper on a team expected to win 11.5 games, and it is why we put our 212 points at RB11 overall despite the age.
The worry is what happens when the touchdowns slow. His 34.3% share of points from scores is the kind of profile that has cost backs in his spot 6.2 points a game from one season to the next, net of four factors. You saw a small version of it already: 35.3 points in week 1 of 2026, then 15.9 and 19 the last two weeks. The 2024 to 2025 slide from 19.79 to 16.44 a game points the same direction, and at 32.7 in year 11 with Jesse Minter and Declan Doyle both new, nobody is promising the old offense carries over.
What we would do: keep him in your lineup every week he is scoring, because a 22.0 average through week 5 of 2026 and a clean bill since before the season opened earns that. But if week 6 of 2026 and the week after it come without a touchdown, expect the regression the numbers predict and trade him away during a big week rather than after a quiet one. The rushing line underneath, 2.3 yards after contact a carry and +0.2 over expected, says the legs are still there. The touchdowns are the part that can leave.