Bhayshul Tuten

Five games in, he is ahead of us. Our preseason pace was 9.8 points a game, and through week 5 of 2026 he sits at 12.7 with a week-by-week line that never fell below 9.8. The running behind it is real: 2.5 yards after contact a carry and +0.3 yards over expected on 82 tracked carries. He has earned every bit of the jump.

The catch is what the jump is built on. 47.4% of his points come from touchdowns, and among backs in that spot, that shape has cost 6.5 points a game on average the next season, net of the factors we track. The 27.8% red-zone touch share points the same way: that profile cost its group 2.9 a game the following year. He is getting his scores on a thin slice of field position, 24% of JAX's carries and targets inside the ten, and when the touchdowns come at a rate like 1.5x his share of the offense, the regression group loses another 0.7 a game. None of this is a talent read. It is a shape read, and the shape is fragile.

The context behind it: last season he averaged 5.9 points a game at 21.3% of the snaps, so this usage is already a step up, and Liam Coen and Grant Udinski are back running the same offense. Our number was 127 points for the season and we had him RB31 on our board, well behind where drafters took him at 53.6 in the fifth round. Bye in week 7 of 2026, then no injury designation all year. Keep him in your lineup and let the touchdowns keep coming. If the red-zone carries stop landing in the end zone, that is the week to reconsider.