Tampa Bay BuccaneersOur read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
The games we expected him to play, two, are already gone, and he has kept going. He did not play in weeks 1 or 2 of 2026, but he has been on the field ever since, and the arc is a rookie settling in: minus 1.1 points in week 3 of 2026 climbing to 13.86 by week 5 of 2026. Our preseason number was 13 points for the whole season and he is already past the low end of the range most outcomes fall in.
The accuracy is the part worth watching. Over 52 tracked attempts in weeks 4 and 5 of 2026 he has completed 3.4 percentage points over expectation, QB11 among 35 quarterbacks with enough attempts to chart, and he gets rid of it fast at 2.87 seconds on average. That is how a 23.9-year-old undrafted rookie survives an offense defenses are loading up against. They are pressuring him on 24% of his dropbacks and blitzing him on 39% of all 71 charted dropbacks, which is the real tax on this profile and the reason the totals stay modest: 337 pass yards, 2 touchdowns, 87 rush yards on 16 carries, and zero targets through five weeks.
He is second on the TB depth chart and the leash belongs to Todd Bowles and new play caller Zac Robinson. In a 12-team league you hold him as the backup with a live arm, and if Mayfield misses time, the home date with NO in week 15 of 2026, the trip to ATL in week 16 of 2026 and the home finale against LAR in week 17 of 2026 are where he could actually matter.