Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The IR spot decides everything about whether he can help you. Coleman has been on it since before week 3 of 2026, so weeks 3, 4 and 5 of 2026 are gone, the board ranks him below every available back at the position, and his bye in week 10 of 2026 is still ahead. Before the season we expected 12 games from him, and three missed weeks plus a bye eats most of that cushion.
What he showed before the injury was thin but not nothing. Week 1 of 2026 gave him 0 points, then week 2 of 2026 gave him 14.8 on 10 carries for 39 yards and 3 catches. Two games, one good one, and now a month of nothing. We set his preseason number at 81 points for the year, with a pace of 6.8 a game across the 12 games we expected from him. His actual 7.4 a game in those two weeks ran a hair better, but two weeks is a small sample on a rookie.
The touches are the hard part. He is listed third among DEN backs behind J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, and Sean Payton calls the plays himself. We had him RB51 and 182 overall, under the roughly 85.8 points backs drafted near his 156.6 ADP have historically managed, and our number sat 5.2 points under that. Hold him while your bench can carry the IR spot. The moment he is back and taking a real workload ahead of Harvey, that is the week the call changes.