Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The 2.3 points a game through week 5 of 2026 is the whole argument against him, and it is not close. Four games, 27 carries, 97 yards, no touchdowns, and a missed week 1 of 2026 before he even got on the field. Our preseason number had 83 points for the year with 12 games expected, about 6.9 a game, and he is running nowhere near that.
Here is what keeps a flicker alive: the goal-line role is real. He has 27% of the red-zone carries and targets in his games and 30% of the carries inside the ten, both RB29 among backs with 20 or more touches of their own, plus 2.0 yards after contact a carry, RB13 among backs with 25 or more carries. That is a short-yardage job on a team that has fed him the highest-value carries. The problem is the depth chart. He is listed third behind Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr., and 2025 ended for him after week 3 of 2025 with a reserve listing and no body part named, so the health history is not a blank.
The year-over-year picture is ugly: his points a game fell from 12.04 in 2024 to 3.87 in 2025, and that collapse shaved his target share from 10.4% down to 2.8%. Two years back he was still a full-season producer, 204.6 points and RB20 in 2024, then 195.5 and RB23 in 2023, and he has not cleared 15 points in any week since. We drafted him at 141.6 before the season for a rebound, and the rebound has not arrived. The bye lands in week 8 of 2026, so there is no hurry either way. Let him go.