Sam Darnold

The pressure numbers are the whole problem here. Seattle's line has let him get hit on 35% of his dropbacks, and defenses are blitzing him on 40% of charted ones, both through week 5 of 2026. That kind of heat drains a quarterback who lives on clean pockets downfield, and it shows: 11.8 points a game through six weeks, with a 0.52 dud in week 1 of 2026 and a missed week 2 of 2026 already on his line.

Here is what keeps us from writing him off entirely. Even with all that heat, the accuracy is holding up: across week 3, week 4 and week 5 of 2026 he is completing passes 4 percentage points over expectation, QB10 among 35 quarterbacks with 50 or more tracked attempts. Week 3 of 2026 gave us 27.66 points, so the ceiling weeks still exist when the protection holds. Brian Fleury calling plays for the first year is part of the uncertainty, and the 3.25-second average time to throw says he is holding the ball rather than ditching it.

The trend is the real dock. He went from 18.12 points a game in 2024 to 13.61 in 2025, and now 11.8 through six weeks of 2026, and he is running under the 14.3 a game we set for him before the season. Our projection for him sat at 214 points for the full season, with the middle range of outcomes running 178 to 249, and that season total looks generous now against the pace he is on. The two-year slide is why. With a week 11 of 2026 bye still ahead, hold him where you have him and use week 6 of 2026 onward to see if the pressure eases. If it does not by week 8 of 2026, move on.