Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Five weeks into the season he is giving you 4.8 points a game, and the part that should bother you most is not the yards, it is the end-zone shape. Zero touchdowns, 8% of the team's red-zone carries and targets in his games (6 of 74), and just 2 of 44 carries and targets inside the ten. Last season he turned 15 red-zone touches into a real fantasy month more than once, TE9 among 126 qualifying tight ends in scoring-range work. Ben Johnson is back and calling the plays, the role has not left, but the touches near the goal line have.
The target stream is the reason to wait. 23 targets in five weeks, 13 catches, and the week 3 and week 4 of 2026 games showed 7.1 and 11.7 points, so there is a pulse. What caps him weekly is where those targets land: 6.3 yards average depth of target, TE17 among 33 tight ends with 15 or more targets, down from 9.1 last season when he sat TE10. Short throws, no scores, that is the whole profile right now.
Before the season we had him at 165 points, TE3 on our board, and drafters took him at 53.8 overall. He is running 4.8 points a game against the 11.0 preseason pace we set. You do not drop a 22-year-old first-rounder five weeks into 2026 off a slow start with no injury designation, but you should not count on him either. Hold through the week 10 of 2026 bye. If the red-zone share and depth of target have not turned by week 12 of 2026, we would swap him for a tight end producing now.