Tyler Warren

The week 5 of 2026 line, 21.4 points, is what he was drafted to do, and the four weeks around it were not a collapse so much as a slow ramp: 14.0 points a game beats our preseason pace of 10.9, and he has not missed a snap's worth of availability. The worry is not the volume, it is the shape of it. In 2025 he got 25 red-zone touches, TE2 at the position, and 15 inside the ten, best among 126 qualifying tight ends. Through weeks 1 to 5 of 2026 he is at 11% of his team's red-zone carries and targets, TE11 among 23 tight ends with 20 or more of their own. That is the usage that turns catches into touchdowns, and right now it has thinned.

The talent signal is still loud. He is averaging 3.8 yards of separation on 36 tracked targets, TE4 among 18 tight ends with 15 or more tracked targets, so he is getting open the way a first-rounder should. What he does after the catch is the drag: minus 0.7 yards per catch over expectation on 30 tracked catches, TE19 among 20 tight ends with 10 or more catches tracked. The air yards share, 12% of his team's air yards in his games, says the downfield role has not arrived yet either.

He is listed first among IND tight ends, Steichen and Cooter are both back, and last year he beat the position's weekly median in all 17 games, so the baseline is real. Our number was 163 for the season, TE4 on our board, taken at 66 before drafters nudged him up 3.4 picks. Hold him through the thin red-zone stretch. If the inside-the-ten touches come back, the 21.4 weeks stop being the exception.