Travis Kelce

The tracking from weeks 1 and 2 of 2026 is the part that should calm you: 3.9 yards after the catch over expectation per catch, first among 20 tight ends with 10 or more tracked catches. A 37-year-old who still wins after the catch is not falling off a cliff, and the 13.2 points a game through week 5 of 2026 sits well above the 9.8 pace we set for him before the season.

The case that gives us pause is the red zone. He has touched the ball on 5% of Kansas City's red-zone carries and targets in his games, 20th among 23 tight ends with 20 or more of their own. Both touchdowns this season came on volume he no longer owns, and his target share already slid from 24.0% in 2024 to 19.7% in 2025. Rashee Rice took 29% of the targets on this roster in 2025 to Kelce's 20%, so the competition for looks is not going away. Fewer looks near the goal line caps the ceiling weeks and makes the 3.5-point stinkers like week 4 of 2026 more likely, and the low weeks were already part of the deal: he cleared 15 points in only 4 of his 17 played weeks in 2025, with a worst of 1.6 in week 16 of 2025.

He has not missed a game, played 17 of 17 last year, and Andy Reid still runs this offense with Kelce listed first at the position. Our number gave him 147 points for 2026, TE7 on our board, and nothing in five weeks argues he is short of that. Hold him, start him every week, and revisit only if the catches stop converting.