Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The completion number is the one thing working. He's +6.3 percentage points over expectation on 147 tracked attempts, QB3 among 35 quarterbacks with 50 or more tracked attempts, one spot behind C.J. Stroud, and he's been pressured on 23% of his dropbacks, so he's earning it under duress. If the supporting cast were stronger, that accuracy would matter more. Garrett Wilson and Mason Taylor took 52% of the 2025 targets between them, and the offense ran just 44% of situation-neutral plays as passes, so there isn't a lot of volume for a 36-year-old quarterback to feed on.
The scoring picture says the same thing. His per-game output dropped from 15.65 in 2024 to 11.46 in 2025, and this season he's at 13.5 a game with two of the last three weeks under 10 points. Week 3 of 2026's 24.04 was the spike, weeks 4 and 5 were the pattern. Six touchdowns and 1,084 passing yards over five weeks keeps him on a QB26-ish track, which is exactly where our board put him before the season at 179 points. His 2025 finish cost him weeks 15 and 18 to an ankle, though he's clean on the injury report since before week 1 of 2026 and has played all five games.
Our call: keep him as your second quarterback, sit him for the bye in week 13 of 2026, and lean on the softer matchups like the home game against NE in week 16 of 2026 rather than starting him every week. The accuracy is real, the volume isn't.