Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The week 3 outburst of 23.5 points in 2026 was the whole season so far, and weeks 4 and 5 of 2026 answered it with 0 and 0.3 points. Fourteen catches on 21 targets is fine work for a rookie, but the shape of it worries us more than the volume. His targets average 5.0 yards downfield, TE28 among 33 tight ends with 15 or more targets, and he holds just 11% of the team's air yards in his games. A tight end living that close to the line needs touchdowns, and the red-zone share is only 8% of the team's carries and targets in his games.
Then there is the depth chart. He is listed second among NYJ tight ends behind Mason Taylor, with Jeremy Ruckert and Jelani Woods behind him. Last season Taylor took 18% of the targets on a team where Garrett Wilson took 34%, so the rookie is chasing leftovers from two established mouths. It does not help that the Jets ran 44% of situation-neutral plays as passes in 2025 on the way to 3 wins.
We liked him enough in the offseason to put our preseason number at 83 points, four points above the mark for TEs drafted around his ADP of 169.6, and we ranked him TE34. But our preseason pace of 6.4 points a game assumed a real role, and five weeks in, the role has not shown up. He has played every game, so at least the availability is there while the opportunity is not.
We would hold in deep leagues and nothing tighter. Two touchdowns in five games keeps him on rosters, but you need the targets to stretch downfield or Taylor to stumble before this becomes anything more than a bye-week patch.