New England PatriotsOur read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The weeks 4 and 5 spike is real, 12.2 and 10.9 points after 0.8 and 1.74 in weeks 2 and 3 of 2026, and he sat out week 1 entirely. But one thing in the five-week sample stands out for the right reason: he caught 4 of 5 contested targets, second among 45 receivers with at least 5, one spot behind Justin Jefferson. That is a skill sign, not a usage sign.
The usage is what holds him back. He is listed sixth among NE receivers, behind A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins, and last year he played 8 games on a 17.9% snap share with a 1.4% target share. Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry took 39% of the NE targets between them in 2025, and from weeks 6 to 10 of 2025 to weeks 11 to 18 his snap share never left a band of 7% to 29%. The room has only gotten fuller. And the scoring profile works against him: among players with a 36.4% touchdown-points share like his, points a game fell 2 the next season on average, the crowded room took another 0.9, and his 1.4x touchdown share cost that group 0.7 more.
Our preseason number was 33 points. At 6.4 a game over four weeks he is pacing ahead of the 3.0 a game we set beside his expected 11 games, though he topped the position's weekly median in just 2 of 8 games in 2025. That math does not survive the depth chart in a 12-team league. In a deep roster format, hold him through the week 11 of 2026 bye and see if the contested-catch work turns into targets. Anywhere else, the spot is worth more.