Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
He sat out week 5 of 2026 and carries a Q tag, so availability is the story before production. The production has not helped his case either. 9.1 points a game through weeks 1 to 4 of 2026, a 19.2 in week 1 of 2026 followed by a zero in week 4, one touchdown on 17 targets. Our preseason pace had him at 15.9 a game, and he is nowhere near it.
The deeper worry is that last season was not noise. His points per game fell from 14.93 in 2024 to 11.31 in 2025, and yards per target fell from 10.3 to 7.4. That is efficiency walking out the door, not just luck. The crowded room is a real drag too: among receivers in his spot, points a game fell 0.9 a game on average when the target race looks like this one, where Allen took 22% and Ladd took 21% of the 2025 targets.
What keeps him on rosters is the profile. 21.2% target share and 78.1% snap share last season, and receivers built like that have historically added points the following year even after a slow season. Our number was 223 for 2026, overall rank 36, and drafters took him at 38.8, so where he went before the season never asked for a star year. He has not been worth where he went yet. Hold him through the week 7 of 2026 bye and expect a decision by week 9 of 2026. If the Q tag turns into missed weeks, we would move on.