Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The Rams gave him no draft capital to grow behind, a round 7 pick in 2025, and they still list him fourth behind Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Jordan Whittington. Nacua and Adams ate 55% of the targets between them last season, so the crumbs are thin before he even gets to Whittington and Tutu Atwell. McVay is back and calls the plays himself, which does not change his lane.
He has played all five weeks in 2026, and the week 3 of 2026 spike of 19.3 points is doing all the work on his 4.6 average. Strip it and you are looking at a receiver with two zeros and two near-zeros. He won 0 of 6 contested targets through week 4 of 2026, last among 45 receivers with that many, and the catches are not coming when the throw is hard. Last season he topped the position's weekly median in just 3 of 10 games, so week 3 of 2026 looks like the outlier, not the trend. The five weeks of targets back this up: 14 targets and 6 catches all season, and the 2025 snap share was just 33.0%, ranking WR144 among 239 qualifying receivers. There is no volume base under the spike.
The history here is unforgiving. Receivers in his spot lost 0.9 points a game the next season on average, and with 23.8% of his scoring tied to touchdowns, the low weeks are zeros, which he has already posted twice in 2026. Our number had him at 55 points for the season. Drop him and use the spot on someone with a real runway.