Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Through four weeks of 2026 he has 5 catches, 52 yards and 0 touchdowns, 2.6 points a game, and he sat out week 5 of 2026 with no designation since before week 6. That is a player giving you nothing while we projected 126 points for the season, 8.4 a game over 15. The gap is not a slow start you can wait out. The week by week makes that plain: 5.7 points in week 1 of 2026, then 1.9, then 2.6, then a zero in week 4 of 2026. Eleven targets in four games and nothing to show for them.
The situation behind the numbers is what kills it. Bowers and Tucker combined for 42% of the 2025 targets on this team, and Nailor is listed second among LV receivers behind Tucker. Receivers in a crowded room like his dropped 0.9 points a game the following year on average, and his 24.3% touchdown-points share carried the same 0.9 cost. Those are the two drags, and neither has improved. The one plus is his 18.3% air-yards share, where players in his spot gained 1.3 a game the next season, but that path runs through a passing game that ran 58% situation-neutral passes in 2025 with 3 wins. Even last season, when he played all 17, he cleared the position's weekly median only 9 times and went over 15 points twice.
We would let him go and use the spot on someone with a live role in week 6 of 2026. His bye does not arrive until week 13 of 2026, so if you keep him you are paying a roster spot for a month before the schedule even gives you an excuse.