Tez Johnson

Everything about Tez Johnson's 2026 starts with where he sits: fifth among TB receivers, behind Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan and Ted Hurst III. The target room in front of him was crowded last year, Egbuka and Mike Evans took 47% of it between them, and players in Johnson's spot lost 0.9 points a game on average the following season because of it. That is the role problem, and it has not improved.

The scoring problem is worse. His 32.5% touchdown-points share means nearly a third of his output rode on touchdowns, and players with that profile have averaged a 2-point-per-game drop the next year. He also scored 1.2x his share of touchdowns, another profile that cost 0.7 a game on average. The season has matched that read so far: 3.9 points a game over the five weeks played in 2026, with -0.4 in week 1 of 2026, 1.8 in week 3 of 2026 and no better than 7.4 in week 5 of 2026, and zero touchdowns on 10 targets. Our preseason number was 76 points, a 5.8-a-game pace over 13 expected games, and he is running well under it.

Last season he was WR66 at 92 points over 15 games, with one 20.2-point week in week 10 of 2025 and six median-beating weeks out of 15. Even then he cleared 15 points just twice. He has stayed healthy and plays every week, which is worth something, but the usage is thin and the profile is fragile. The touchdown-heavy shape of last year's production has cost players in his spot 2 points a game on average, and that is the shape his numbers rest on. Drop him for a receiver with a clearer weekly path.