AJ Barner

Two yards. That's the average depth of Barner's 20 targets through week 6 of 2026, last among the 33 tight ends with 15 or more targets, and it explains almost everything else. He's hauling in 4% of Seattle's air yards, again last among qualifying tight ends, so the 15 catches on 24 targets are checkdown work. It's added up to 5.8 points a game, well under the 7.9 pace our projection set for him, with 1 touchdown in six weeks.

The case for him was built last season, when his target share jumped from 6.7% to 14.9% and his scoring climbed from 5.23 points a game to 8.66. He played all 17 weeks, finished TE14, and got 16 red-zone touches, TE8 among 126. The playing time was never the issue, either, at 77.7% of Seattle's snaps in 2025, TE15 among 137 qualifying tight ends. And he still sits first among SEA tight ends on the depth chart, ahead of Eric Saubert and rookie Elijah Arroyo. But Brian Fleury is calling plays now instead of last year's setup, and the early usage says the downfield and scoring role hasn't followed Barner into 2026.

Tight ends drafted around his 149.8 ADP have historically landed near 107 points, and our preseason number of 127 sat 20 points above that, 98th overall and TE16. At his current pace he won't come close to the 108-point bottom of our middle range unless scoring turns. The bye doesn't hit until week 11 of 2026, so there's still time for the role to deepen. In deeper leagues, hold and watch the red-zone touches. In ten-teamers, the wire offers better options this week.