Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The 2025 season was real, no doubt about it. TE2 among 137 qualifying tight ends, one spot behind Trey McBride in points, touches and yards, a 22.7% target share up from 13.7% the year before. But the shape of that season had a hole in it, and 2026 has fallen straight through. His red-zone share of his own touches was 10.2% last year, TE88 among 126, and through five weeks of 2026 he has zero touchdowns on 15 targets.
The new problem is depth. Six point three yards average depth of target, TE19 among the 33 tight ends with 15 or more targets. Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees are using him as a possession outlet, and possession outlets do not carry a tight end to 150 points. He is at 5.4 a game against the 9.4 pace we set before the season, and the gap is not small. The one encouraging thing is week 5 of 2026, 15.2 points, by far his best of the year. If that is the start of the ball moving his way downfield, the case reopens.
Availability was never the worry and still is not. He has not missed a game this season, no designation since before week 1 of 2026, and he played all 17 in each of the last three years. Our number was 150 for the season, TE5 on our board, and drafters took him at 86.6. That was before the season. Right now he is not giving you close to that. Hold him through the week 5 of 2026 uptick and the week 11 of 2026 bye. If weeks 6 and 7 of 2026 look like weeks 1 through 4 of 2026 did, we would move on and use the spot.