Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The 26-point week 2 of 2026 is doing all the work on his line right now, because the weeks around it are 7.5, 6, 2.9 and 6. He is running at 9.7 a game, which sits right on the 6.7 preseason pace we gave him plus a little, but the shape is ugly: 31 targets and 24 catches and not one touchdown. Our preseason number had him at 100 points for the year, and at this pace he is giving you more than where he went. Last year he cleared 15 points in only 3 of 17 weeks, so this is who he has been. The separation number backs him up, 4.1 yards on average over weeks 1 and 2 of 2026, second among tracked tight ends and a spot behind Harold Fannin Jr. The catches will keep coming.
What he does not get is chances to score. His red-zone share this season is 8% of Houston's red-zone carries and targets in his games, and in 2025 his red-zone share of his own touches landed 86th among 126 qualifying tight ends. Nick Caley kept the play calling from last season, so there is no reason to expect that to change. The -0.2 yards after catch over expectation does not help him turn short throws into anything more.
The schedule is not doing him favors either, with a week 8 of 2026 bye and weeks 15 to 17 of 2026 at home against JAX then away at PHI and GB. If you rostered him, hold him as your second tight end and start him only when the matchup is soft. What would change our read is two straight weeks with a score, which we have not seen since week 2 of 2026.