Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Five weeks of 2026 and Cade Otton has 18 catches, 182 yards and no touchdowns. That is the case in one line. He is doing the catchable-things well, third among tracked tight ends at 3.9 yards of separation, ninth in air yards share, but he is invisible where points actually pile up: 5% of Tampa's red-zone carries and targets in his games, 2 of 40. Until that changes, 5.5 to 8.8 points a week is what he is.
The 2025 season explains why we did not expect more. He led all tight ends with a 93.2% snap share, caught 572 yards, and still ranked 96th among 126 in red-zone share of his own touches, 6 red-zone touches all year. Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans took 47% of the targets between them, and none of Otton's looks are about to push them aside. Volume without scoring range is his whole shape, and Zac Robinson's new offense has not moved it. His best week last year, 22.4 in week 18 of 2025, is the outlier, not the plan.
The mild worry underneath is that he is not creating after the catch either, minus 0.2 yards a catch over expectation this year. So the low end of his season is what you are already watching. We had him at 86 points before the season and nothing in the first five weeks argues for more. Hold him through his week 10 of 2026 bye if your starter has a tough week, otherwise he is a name for the bottom of your roster, not your lineup.