Brenton Strange

The 10.1 points a game through week 5 of 2026 is running well ahead of the 6.5 preseason pace we set on him, and the shape of the production backs it up. He is separating from defenders once the ball arrives, 3.4 yards on average across the 21 tracked targets he drew in weeks 3, 4 and 5 of 2026, TE7 among the 18 tight ends with at least 15 tracked targets, and his 18% slice of the team's air yards in his games ranks TE7 in that same 23-tight-end group. That is not just checkdown volume hiding behind a catch count.

The case for a real jump sits in the target share, which went from 10.2% in 2024 to 15.8% in 2025, and Coen and Udinski are both back running the same offense. But scoring is the missing piece: one touchdown in five games, and only 3 of 44 red-zone carries and targets in his games, TE18 among 23. Last season he had 10 red-zone touches, so the chances have existed. Until they return, the ceiling weeks stay thin, and our 97-point projection for him holds up only if the end-zone looks come back around.

Then there is the availability question. He missed weeks 6 to 7 and 9 to 11 of 2025, and that kind of stretch shaves the season total hard, which is why our games range bottoms out at 10. So on your roster right now, keep him and ride him through the bye that JAX takes in week 7 of 2026, start him as a low-end TE2 with TE1 weeks when the scores come, and trust the 10.1 points a game over whatever name is sitting on your wire.