Atlanta FalconsOur read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The red-zone role is what changed, and it decides his case. Last season only 12.3% of his own touches came in the red zone, RB95 among 147 qualifying backs, which is why a 366-touch season still left scoring on the table. This year he has 63% of Atlanta's red-zone carries and targets in his games and 61% of the work inside the ten, and five touchdowns are already in through week 5 of 2026.
The efficiency holds up too. He's at +1.6 rushing yards over expected a carry, RB3 among 36 backs with 25 or more tracked carries, and 2.7 yards after contact a carry. So the 24.2 points a game is not a touchdowns-outpacing-production fluke. The weeks that went sideways, 11.1 in week 2 of 2026 and 15.8 in week 5, look like variance inside a role this heavy rather than a problem.
The one thing to keep in mind is the baseline at this draft spot. Running backs taken around 2.3 before the season have averaged about 241 points, and that count includes the ones who got hurt or fell flat alongside the ones who delivered. Our number sits +20 from that, so the expectation was already sky-high. He has played all 17 games in each of his three seasons, so the availability part of that history is the part least likely to repeat on him. Tommy Rees calling plays and Kevin Stefanski running the show is the one unknown, and five weeks in the usage answer looks fine.
We had him at 261 for the full season, and he is running well ahead of the 17.4 points a game we set as his preseason pace. Start him every week until something in the role actually breaks, and enjoy the week 11 of 2026 bye as your only real gap.