Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The role changed and the scoring has not caught up. New coach, new play caller, and Pollard is now getting 46% of TEN's red-zone carries and targets in his games, RB9 among backs with 20 or more touches, plus 59% of what runs inside the ten, RB5. In 2025 that same job was missing entirely, 20 red-zone touches ranking him RB50 among 148 qualifying backs. He is first among TEN running backs ahead of Tyjae Spears, and he has played all five weeks, so the opportunity is real.
The production is not. One touchdown, 8.7 points a game, with 4.4 in week 1 of 2026 and 5.2 in week 5 of 2026 sitting around a two-week bump in weeks 3 and 4. The receiving work has faded, 12 targets through five games after his target share already fell from 11.9% in 2024 to 7.7% in 2025. And the legs are not bailing him out: 1.6 yards after contact a carry, RB35 among 53 backs with 25 or more carries, and only +0.1 rushing yards over expected a carry, RB16 among 36. Age 29.4 on opening day, eighth season, that profile has cost backs in his spot before, and it is costing him now.
Our preseason number was 140 points, and he is running about half a point a game under the pace behind it. Our pick had him RB28 overall at 93, well after the 68.8 drafters spent. If the goal-line carries keep coming, the touchdowns should follow, and the weeks 15 to 17 of 2026 stretch, home against IND, at LV, home against PIT, gives him a landing spot. Until we see a score or two, hold him on your roster and keep him benched unless your running back spot is thin.