Los Angeles RamsOur read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
He is beating our preseason pace by a wide margin, 21.9 points a game against the 10.9 we set for him before the season, and he has done it while staying healthy through five weeks of 2026. The usage is the reason to trust it: 44% of LAR's red-zone carries and targets in his games, 50% of the carries and targets inside the ten, and the rushing is real work, not just volume, at +0.6 yards over expected per carry. He ran well in 2025 too, when his yards per touch climbed from 4.2 to 5.2.
The worry is where his points come from. 29.6% of his points come from touchdowns, and players whose points carry a touchdown share that high have dropped 9.6 points a game the following season on average, net of the other factors. The red-zone and inside-ten shares carry their own bills, 6.4 and 3.1 points a game down respectively among players in his spot, so when the scores thin out, more thins out with them. A strong team cushions that some, but 11.5 expected wins still shaves 1.6 a game among backs like him.
What saves him is the week-to-week steadiness. He beat the position's weekly median in all 17 games of 2025, and his worst week this year is 15.5. Even the bad weeks clear the bar. He is listed first among LAR running backs ahead of Blake Corum and Ronnie Rivers, and Sean McVay calls the plays himself, so the role is not changing on him. Our preseason number gave him 164 points for the full season, and at his current pace he blows well past the middle range of 135 to 193. Start him, ride the role, and keep the touchdown-share number in mind if a scoring slump shows up.