Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The 36.8 in week 5 of 2026 got everyone's attention, but what should hold yours is underneath it: 3.2 yards after contact a carry, first among 53 qualifying backs, and +1.8 rushing yards over expected, second behind only Kenneth Walker III among 36 tracked. This is not a hot stretch riding volume. He is running through contact better than anyone at the position, and at 18.6 a game through five weeks he is outpacing the 11.2 pace our preseason number was built on. That number, the 157 we gave him for the full season, looks light the way he is going.
The case is still the same shape as last season, when he beat the weekly median in all 16 games he played, because he catches it. 19 grabs and 230 receiving yards through week 5 of 2026 carry the weeks the rushing score does not come. What holds him below the top tier is end-zone work: 25% of his team's red-zone carries and targets but just 1 of 7 touches inside the ten, 41st among 65 backs, and 2 touchdowns total. His target share already fell from 11.7% to 9.0% between 2024 and 2025, and backs in that spot tend to shave a point or two a game when the touchdowns stay away.
Availability has not been the problem, one missed stretch in weeks 4 and 5 of 2024 is the only stain, and there is no designation now. Keep starting him every week through the week 9 of 2026 bye and see if the scores catch up to the running.