Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The usage jump is the story, and it happened without anyone noticing. Last season he took 10.6% of his own touches in the red zone, RB105 among 147 qualifying backs, a profile that capped his scoring even when the volume was there. This year it is 43% of Tampa Bay's red-zone carries and targets in his games, 17 of 40, RB12 among 65 backs with 20 or more carries and targets. That is the difference between a back who has to rip off long runs to help you and one who gets handed the ball where points live.
The efficiency underneath holds up too. He is running for +1.1 yards over expected a carry, RB7 among 36 backs with at least 25 tracked carries, and 2.8 yards after contact a carry, RB3, one spot behind Kenneth Walker III. So when the touches inside the ten dry up for a week, weeks 3 and 4 of 2026 at 7.8 and 6.1 points, he still finds ways to produce, and week 5 of 2026 showed the ceiling at 31.5. He is at 15.7 a game against our preseason pace of 11.6.
The dock is availability and the efficiency slide, yards per touch down from 6 in 2024 to 4.3 in 2025. He missed weeks 5 to 8 and 10 to 12 of 2025, and our expectation of 14 games already leaned on some of that risk. But he has played all five weeks this season, he is listed first among Tampa Bay backs over Kenny Gainwell and Sean Tucker, and the new play caller is feeding him where it counts. We would hold him ahead of his week 10 of 2026 bye and start him every week he suits up. Our full-season number was 162 points, and he is tracking past it.