Indianapolis ColtsOur read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
Nineteen and a half points a game through five weeks, six touchdowns, and not a single missed practice designation. That is the headline, and it beats what we set before the season, a 15.7 pace over the 15 games we expected. The role behind it is exactly what it was in 2025, when he was RB2 among 158 backs in snap share and RB2 in scoring-range touches behind only Christian McCaffrey: this year he is taking half of Indy's red-zone carries and targets in his games and half inside the ten, RB6 and RB9 among backs with 20 or more touches of each kind.
The part that should bother you is efficiency. His rushing yards over expected are -0.2 a carry, -25 across 101 tracked carries, RB25 among 36 qualifying backs, and the yards after contact, 1.9 a carry, are only middle of the road. When a back scores a third of his team's fantasy points off touchdowns, the profile is fragile, and among players in his spot that shape has cost 6.2 points a game the following year on average. Weeks 3 and 5 of 2026, 9.2 and 11.2, are what that looks like when the scores dry up for a week.
Still, the season he is actually having sits inside our middle range of 196 to 277, and the schedule through week 17 of 2026 finishes soft at TEN, CIN and CLE. Our full-season number for him stays 236, and nothing in the first five weeks has moved us off it. We would start him without hesitation and only worry if the touchdown well runs dry for a full month.